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| Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 158 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 03 2026 ...Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Northern Rockies into the Plains and the Southwest over the next few days... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Plains on Monday and Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of New Mexico and western Texas on Tuesday into Wednesday... An active pattern continues as multiple upper-level disturbances move through much of CONUS. On Monday, a lingering upper-level low near the U.S.-Canadian border will maintain showers and thunderstorms across the northern Rockies into the Plains and the Southeast. With increasing southeasterly flow and instability developing along the associated frontal boundary, chances for heavy rainfall will be possible. Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has highlighted parts of the Northern Rockies, Great Plains and Central Mid-South with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for Monday. With a broad corridor of Gulf moisture extending from Texas into the central Plains, widespread afternoon and evening thunderstorm development will be possible. Several clusters of thunderstorms may organize along remnant boundaries and areas of low-level convergence. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the central High Plains with a Marginal Risk expanding into the Southeast. By Tuesday, the frontal boundary will become organized and will stretch along the southern U.S. Deepening easterly/southeasterly flow will transport rich Gulf moisture, northwestward over higher terrain, which will aid in shower and thunderstorm development. The slow moving frontal boundary will also support moisture to pool along the boundary, which supports moments of heavy rainfall. Therefore, WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of eastern New Mexico on Tuesday. Further north across the Plains, a shortwave disturbance and a secondary front dropping across the northern tier, will reinforce additional showers and thunderstorms. WPC has much of the Plains highlighted with a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday into Wednesday. In addition, SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across parts of northern High Plains, with some strong wind gusts and hail associated with the storm. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary near the Gulf coast will serve as a focus for rounds of showers and thunderstorms, which will bring a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Across the central and eastern U.S., an expanding upper ridge will promote increasingly warm temperatures. High temperatures from Texas through the Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and portions of the Ohio Valley are expected to run several degrees above climatological averages. Many locations will experience afternoon highs well into the 80s, while portions of the southern Plains could reach the 90s. Below average temperatures persist across portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest under the influence of upper-level troughing. Oudit |
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