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| DISCUSSION... As of 235 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong ridging remains centered over the area today associated with a 1035mb high centered over the Canadian Maritimes. Temperatures have warmed nicely under clear skies as a result this afternoon into the low to mid 60s for many locations. Another clear night is in store with temperatures lowering into the mid 30s to low 40s. Some cooler air may be possible in the Adirondacks and northern St. Lawrence Valley as winds turn to the northeast beyond midnight, leading to cold air drainage from Canada. A weak moisture starved cold front will slide south from Canada late tonight into Tuesday and wash out over the area with no precipitation expected, though some morning clouds and cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday morning. Sunny skies will prevail thereafter with large scale ridging continuing with low humidity and light winds through late week. While prevailing confidence remains high for no precipitation through late week, there are some signs of light sprinkles across the spine of the Greens late Thursday as another moisture starved cold front moves through. While GEFS ensembles show 0% of any measurable precipitation, the Euro ensembles have been fairly stable denoting a 60% chance for at least some measurable rain along the western slopes of the Greens Thursday afternoon. Have introduced a small area of slight chance PoPs (20% or less) for the aforementioned areas. Given the stout dry layer we will have, showers should they develop, likely would be virga moreover, keeping confidence on the high side for little to no precipitation.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A classic stretch of fall weather will continue late this week and through the weekend. Surface high pressure will build south out of Quebec for Friday, bringing cold air advection. A brief flurry is possible in the mountains early Friday behind the cold front but moisture will be significantly lacking. Highs will drop into the upper 40s to around 50 on Friday. The high should be centered almost directly overhead over the weekend, leading to clear skies, light winds and highs in the 50s. Most mornings will be frosty during this stretch, with lows in the 20s and 30s.
. AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will likely prevail for the next 24 hours with mostly SKC. We continue to monitor chances for low clouds with just enough low level moisture squeezed out behind a weak cold front passing through tonight. However, there are doubts on any resulting impacts to aviation as coverage of clouds may be spotty, leading to mainly FEW/SCT at terminals if they form in the early morning (roughly 08Z-12Z period). Light/variable winds early in the period will trend northerly as a weak front developing over the airspace gradually pushes southward. These northerly winds will likely approach and exceed 10 knots at times at most terminals, especially MPV, EFK, BTV and PBG, during the 14-20Z period before gradually diminishing. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig DISCUSSION...Myskowski/DanzigAVIATION ...Kutikoff US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service 1325 East West Highway Silver Spring, MD 20910 Comments? Questions? Please Contact Us. Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities |
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