| DISCUSSION... As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Bitterly cold temperatures in the 0 to -20F range prevail this morning with wind chill values mostly in the -15F to locally -35F. Progged 925mb temps modify slightly this aftn into the -18C to -22C, supporting highs in the 0 to 10F range, but near -5F at summits. Wind chills slowly improve into the -5F to -20F range by midday, with near -30F at the summits. Clouds with pockets of light snow continue to rotate acrs northern VT in the cyclonic/upslope flow aloft, while blocked flow prevails below summit level. Have continued with chc pops acrs the eastern CPV and northern/central Greens into the NEK thru this morning, but any accumulation wl be Sfc dwpts in the -15F to -25F indicates drier air is advecting into our region on northerly winds, which should help improve cigs and result in some clearing in downslope areas today.
Tonight temps are challenging again as 1036mb sfc high pres is progged to slowly advance eastward toward the northern/western NY, while northerly flow conts acrs our fa. Always have concerns with cyclonic northerly flow and prevailing cloud cover, especially mtns of central/northern VT, including the NEK. Expect a wide range in temps as colder/deeper protected valleys decouple, while midslopes/summits stay slightly warmer as sharp/shallow thermal inversion develops. Have trended temps toward the cooler MAV guidance, which shows lows in the -5F to -25F, with slightly colder wind chills. The combination of cold temps and wind chills will likely require additional cold headlines tonight into Monday.
Weakening 1024mb sfc high pres is centered directly overhead on Monday into Monday night with several ribbons of enhanced mid lvl moisture associated with waa aloft shifting acrs our fa. These ribbons of mid lvl moisture, while sfc remains very dry with light winds makes for another challenging temp forecast on Monday night into Tues. Based on very dry dwpts and light winds with mostly clear skies, just high clouds, have trended toward the cooler MAV guidance for Monday night into Tues. This idea supports lows 0 to -15F, but if more clouds develop lows wl be much warmer.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Models remain in broad agreement in showing a northern stream clipper low to track east-southeast across the area during Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Fairly strong warm thermal advection through the mid levels and a brief 6-hour window where PWATs climb to near 0.5 inches should be more than enough to produce a period of light snows across the region during this time frame. Mean probabilities support a general 1-4 inch event, with greatest totals in the northern mountains. Behind this system, consensus continues to support a welcomed moderation in temperatures back toward seasonal norms with quiet weather under high pressure.
. AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday....A mix of VFR/MVFR through 14Z, improving toward VFR at all terminals thereafter. Scattered flurries possible on and off through the overnight hours at KSLK/KBTV/KEFK/KMPV. Winds northwesterly 6-12 kts and occasionally gusty, abating after 00Z Monday.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
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