| DISCUSSION... As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The combination of low humidity, gusty winds, and warm temperatures, along with areas of receptive fuels has increased our fire weather concerns for today. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for near critical fire weather conditions expected, after coordination with partners on fuel conditions.
High pressure shifting eastward while a system approaching out of the Great Lakes Region will increase the pressure gradient across the region promoting gusty southerly flow today. While the low level jet is not as impressive as last week`s, temperatures are expected to be warmer resulting in better mixing of 30-40mph winds to the surface mainly across the east- west portion of Highway 11 corridor in northern New York and for the Champlain Valley where flow typically channels. Timing of the passing of the 850mb jet maximum has slid to the evening hours suggesting winds will remain gusty for longer and may result in speeds approaching 45 mph at times right along the lake shore and across the islands. A few showers or virga may accompany this streak, so RH could start climbing late afternoon into the evening coincident with the jet maximum.
Otherwise, very dry air aloft will mix to the surface with widespread RH ranging 20-35%. These conditions coupled with gusty winds and dry fine fuel promote increased rates of fire spread and would be concerning should a fire ignite. Poor RH recoveries are likely given the progged thermal structure of the 2500-5000ft layer where dry conditions will linger.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A frontal will move into the region Friday with satellite showing its current position in the Great Lakes Region. While this system will NOT be a soaker, models have increased QPF over the last cycle. CAMs and NBM have increased into the 0.1-0.4" range across the region supporting wetting rains that would help alleviate dry finer fuels. Leaned more into CAMs to better highlight 0.25-0.4 inches across terrain with 0.1-0.25 generally for lower elevations. The one foil for QPF for eastern Essex County in northern New York, the Champlain Valley, and Windsor County in Vermont could be rain shadowing with a decent 40-55kt 850mb jet accompanying the front.
KEY MESSAGE 3: After a brief period of high pressure over the weekend, a more active weather pattern is expected heading into next week, bringing several chances for rainfall to the region. The first chances look to arrive Sunday night into Monday, with a frontal boundary situated across the region, although there is still some uncertainty as to the exact location of this feature, and how that might impact temperatures and overall precipitation amounts. Additional shortwaves look to pass through the region towards mid- week, continuing to bring additional chances for showers.
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for early next week, as southerly flow helps usher in warmer air. The current forecast has daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 60s Monday and Tuesday, with a few locations near 70 for Tuesday. In comparison, normal high temperatures for this time of year are generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Depending on where the aforementioned boundary sets up for Monday, daytime temperatures may be impacted, with more northern locations cooler while some locales in southern Vermont may soar into the upper 70s. These trends will need to be monitored as we get closer.
. AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Gusty winds and dry conditions are anticipated over the next 24 hours, with high confidence of VFR flight rules. Current southwesterly to southerly winds as of 23Z Wednesday are running 3-9 knots, though exact wind direction is highly variable and dependent on location. Throughout the overnight period and into Thursday, we anticipate winds to increase out of the south with widespread sustained winds 10+ knots by 09Z-15Z. Gusts are likely to exceed 20 knots everywhere by around 12Z-15Z Thursday, increasing further to 30-40 knots at BTV, SLK, PBG, and MSS by roughly 15Z-18Z, enhanced by channeling in the Champlain and St. Lawrence valleys. BTV will likely be the first site to see winds heighten in this way due to this channeling. It`s not out of the question for gusts at PBG to exceed 40 knots around 16Z-20Z Thursday in peak valley channeling and atmospheric mixing, but at this time, confidence is not high enough to include that in the TAF. Some localized low-level wind shear will develop at MSS over the next few hours with a 30-40 knot southwesterly jet moving overhead. This will also spread to SLK and EFK around 15Z-18Z as the jet shifts northeastward and strengthens to 40-45 knots.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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