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| DISCUSSION... As of 231 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: As upper level flow remains northwesterly over our region under an upper level trough we will have continued chances for isolated rain showers this afternoon and evening and again on Saturday. Surface high pressure will ridge into our area from the north on Sunday and into Monday, leading to drier weather during that period. Will have areas of fog each overnight, highs generally in the 70s areawide.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The more dynamic fall-like synoptic pattern is beginning to become established. Going into mid and late week, a deepening low will move east from Ontario into Quebec, with ensemble guidance indicating it will likely drop blow 990 mb by the time it reaches Atlantic Canada. The center of the low should pass by well to the north and the best dynamics should miss the region. While warm air advection will occur mid-week and bring a more humid airmass into the region, there will not be enough time for a fully tropical airmass to become established. Therefore, this will limit instability as the system passes by. During Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday, multiple boundaries/troughs/fronts will pass through and bring multiple rounds of showers. A favored nocturnal passage of the strongest dynamics and a marginal airmass should prevent a widespread severe threat, but with such a strong low to the north the threat will still be watched. Afterward, the coolest airmass of the season so far will become established, with widespread highs in the 60s (and potentially 50s in the cooler spots) for Friday. Depending on the position of the surface high over the weekend, first frost could be possible in the cold hollows.
. AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are mostly expected to continue through the evening. The exception is that a few isolated to scattered showers will move through northeastern Vermont and could bring a brief visibility reduction to MVFR at EFK. Ceilings will lower/form as the night goes on. Widespread MVFR ceilings are likely by late in the night, with some periods of IFR possible at SLK, BTV, EFK and MSS. Patchy fog formation is possible in areas that remain clear but anything that forms should remain very localized. These ceilings will lift and try to scatter during the day tomorrow and mostly VFR conditions should return for the afternoon. Winds will generally be northwesterly today, becoming northerly tomorrow. Most places should see values in the 5-15 KT range during the day, with brief gusts up to 20 KT possible. Mostly light and variable winds are expected overnight. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles DISCUSSION...Neiles/MyskowskiAVIATION ...Myskowski US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service 1325 East West Highway Silver Spring, MD 20910 Comments? Questions? Please Contact Us. Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities |
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